18 February 2014 My 2¢ As Yogi Berra would say, nowadays, predicting the future is not like it used to be. Predicting the digital era was easy, after all the binary 1 and the 0 have been around for 83 years. The challenge is to predict the post-digital world. Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, recently published a book with the subtitle, “The Future of Forecasting.” Unfortunately, for the master of deregulations and the father of the 2008 global financial crisis, his predictions did not come to fruition. Indeed, as Yogi Berra would say, nowadays, predicting the future is not like it used to be. Granted, economics is not a science (even though degrees in economics are called “bachelors of science”), but if there were formulas, in the form of rules and regulations to be strictly enforced, economics could be a science. Greenspan, however, expected a stellar economy under a “market knows best” irrational and volatile philosophy otherwise known as “chaotic system” (I call it anarchic), which allowed Australian economist Steve Keen to predict the 2008 global financial collapse way back in 1995. But how accurate can general predictions be? Most of us don’t believe in fortune tellers, however we follow the stock market, the weather and are constantly waiting for the “big one” (earthquake) inCalifornia. People also like to make predictions (fromthemundane, “wait till mother comes home,” to the more worrisome global warming). Plus, we like to read about general predictions, like George Orwell’s 1949 book, 1984. But, there are books written as early as 1879 that predicted print-on-demand (The Senator’s Daughter by Edward Page Mitchell) and even credit cards (Looking Backwardby Edward Bellamy). Movies introduced futuristic concepts as early as 1927 with Metropolis, while in the U.S. television started to explore the future starting with a cartoon, The Jetsons, in 1962 followed by the BBC’s Doctor Who in 1963, 20th Century Fox’s Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea in 1964, and Paramount’s Star Trek in 1966. In the case of 1984, some predictions, like mind control, the Ministry of Truth and perpetual war, did not really materialize, but it’s scary how accurate Orwellian government surveillance actually is in view of the recent NSA scandal in which the U.S. spy agency boldly monitored even German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s communications. The Ministry of Truth, on the other hand, came close to fruition under former president George W. Bush’s misled Iraqi War, when he said if one was not with America (meaning him), he or she was against America. Other predictions not yet realized are flying automobiles (first conceptualized in 1917 by Glenn Curtiss) and robot servants or personal robots — an idea that dates as far back as the fourth century B.C. even though the term “robot” as a humanoid was first introduced in 1921 by Czech writer Karel Capek. We are close to getting a wrist TV phone like the one envisioned in 1964 by the creator of the cartoon character Dick Tracy, and of course we’re right in the middle of the digital media revolution predicted by Arthur C. Clark in 1948. Speaking of digital media, I’m proud of the prediction made in my first book, published in Italy in 1975, in which one chapter titled The Future of TV predicted a two-way television (interactivity) and flat-screen TV. Also, in another book, Television Via Internet: A New Frontier. Webcasting For Broadcasting, published in Italy in 1999, I envisioned exactly the type of television delivery we are getting today, even though I realize that other people made the same predictions (and perhaps earlier than me). Dom Serafini “Well, so much for my gut feelings!” MAIN OFFICES 216 EAST 75TH STREET NEW YORK, NY 10021 TEL: (212) 288-3933 FAX: (212) 288-3424 WWW.VIDEOAGE.ORG WWW.VIDEOAGELATINO.COM WWW.VIDEOAGE.IT P.O. BOX 25282 LOS ANGELES, CA 90025 VIALE ABRUZZI 30 20123 MILAN, ITALY YUKARI MEDIA YMI BLDG. 3-3-4, UCHIHIRANOMACHI CHUO-KU, OSAKA JAPAN TEL: (816) 4790-2222 EDITOR DOM SERAFINI ASSISTANT EDITOR SARA ALESSI EDITORIAL CONTRIBUTORS ISME BENNIE (CANADA) ENZO CHIARULLO (ITALY) LUCY COHEN BLATTER CARLOS GUROVICH LEAH HOCHBAUM ROSNER BOB JENKINS (U.K.) AKIKO KOBAYACHI (JAPAN) DAVID SHORT (AFRICA) MARIA ZUPPELLO (BRAZIL) PUBLISHER MONICA GORGHETTO BUSINESS OFFICE LEN FINKEL LEGAL OFFICE ROBERT ACKERMANN, STEVE SCHIFFMAN WEBMANAGER MIKE FAIVRE DESIGN/LAYOUT CARMINE RASPAOLO ILLUSTRATIONS BOB SHOCHET
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